Whilst trying to rally support for a game in this year’s edition, the news broke that Jan Ullrich, the likely contender to win the tour this year, and Ivan Basso who was also on the podium last year, have been suspended due to alleged doping.

The accusations centre around blood transfusions: the riders have blood extracted at a previous time. This is then stored and re-transfused just before major races, giving them a 10-15% performance advantage as their blood is extra-oxygenated.

I’m not so motivated to watch and report on the tour this year. Lance Armstrong’s two possible successors are out, and many other teams are reduced to less riders as there are many suspended athletes.

Doping has been a scourge to cycling, but I think it’s unfairly singled out since endurance for an event like the Tour puts the athletes very much under the spotlight. 200km+ per day for 2-3 weeks makes phenomenal demands on the body.

Look me in the (virtual) eye and tell me that there aren’t performance enhancing methods going undetected in major sports.

Thanks to everyone for following the Fella’s tour 2005. I’m honoured to have come first, having expected to be in the middle of the peloton for most of the race. My tactic of putting Vinokourov in the team was the move which gave me the race : it turns out that the optimal 1-2 was Vinokourov – Armstrong, which made the difference for my squad.

Next year I expect the competition to be hotter still, as there will be no predictable Armstrong victory, more battling in the peloton, and hopefully some very exciting attacks.

Paul Evans made a valiant effort to pull back points, gaining ten on Francis Lee. However, from today’s morning analysis we knew he had a mountain to climb, and it was a flat stage after all.

It just remains for me to give you some summary information, most of which is also included as new data in the Excel sheet (attached).

Rankings

The rankings of the teams based on the number of top ten placings for all 15 riders shows that ranking your squad, once selected, is the most important factor. It’s very close between the first three riders, and given Paul’s excellent score in spite of a lack of top ten places, his team positioning wasn’t as bad as he made out : thankfully he didn’t have a couple more strong riders or he’d have been a big challenger.

No contest for last place, where Keir’s random selection proved that you would have to work hard to do worse even if you were trying.

Final Ranking :

481(+54,-54) Simon White (France)
464(+57,-71) Joost Dantuma (UK)
410(+33,-125) Francis Lee (France)
400(+43,-135) Paul Evans (France)
107(+15,-428) Keir Mitchell (UK)

Most stage wins :

5. Francis Lee
4. Simon White
3. Joost Dantuma
3. Paul Evans
3. Keir Mitchell

Highest stage score :

57*. Joost Dantuma
54*. Francis Lee
54. Simon White
51. Paul Evans
26. Keir Mitchell

* this score also a stage winning score

Most “efficient” squad

Most top ten places :

49. Joost Dantuma
47. Simon White
46. Francis Lee
38. Paul Evans
10. Keir Mitchell

Number of riders who failed to make any top ten positions:

2. Joost Dantuma (Beloki, Heras)
3*. Paul Evans (Azevedo, Beloki, Jaksche)
3*. Simon White (Kirsipuu, Heras, Sastre)
3*. Francis Lee (Mayo, Rogers, Heras)
9. Keir Mitchell (Gonchar, Garcia Acosta, Spezialetti, Moos, Kroon, Canada, Loosli, Noval, Cortinovis)

* ranked according to the importance of riders who failed to make scores, e.g. Paul had 3 no scoring riders who were lower ranked in his team than Simon or Francis’ no score squad members.

Of these riders Heras (White, Lee) and Beloki (Dantuma, Evans) feature in 2 teams.

See the Optimal Team :
http://staff.science.uva.nl/~erikt/tdf/getpart.cgi?YEAR=2005&SEARCH=optimal%20team

What of Keir’s challenge for the wooden spoon? Well, given Eisel and McGee’s return to top ten places, Adios Mofo was forced into submission. His final score was 93, 14 points adrift. Keir can take the honours for lowest placed rider not to win a stage, as both Adios Mofo and S. Chaumette just above Keir won stages. I don’t think we’ll see that kind of phenomenon again at the bottom of the table.

The rainy conditions, the foregone conclusion of a seventh victory for Lance Armstrong and the traditional go slow before getting to the Champs Elysées meant that the stage took time to warm up. Late attack hopes were wiped out as the official GC placings were decided as soon as the riders crossed the line for the first of eight times. This was for safety reasons as the organisers didn’t want any crashes in attacks on the slippery Paris roads. Vinokourov had other ideas as he sprinted to take fifth place on the GC due to bonus allocations. He outpaced McGee who had gone with him, cementing my victory to boot.

If anyone wants to calculate a green or polka-dot jersey ranking, I’m interested. I can’t come up with a methodology short of taking all points for those competitions and weighting them with Fella’s tour teams, which seems like a bit too much work.

Cheers, and I hope to see you all next year on the Fella’s tour.

-Simon

It’s pretty much cut and dried in the Fella’s tour. Barring a freak result, it’s unlikely that the order will change after the time trial stage. Franco has Armstrong placed first in his team, and the 3 extra bonus points which that represents made the difference today.

427(+46,-53) Simon White (France)
407(+33,-73) Joost Dantuma (UK)
377(+50,-103) Francis Lee (France)
357(+35,-123) Paul Evans (France)
92 (+0,-388) Keir Mitchell (UK)

Keir Mitchell is in trouble at the bottom, as Adios Mofo made a few points to make it to 91. If Vinokourov, Rasmussen or Mancebo get a top ten place today, then he’ll no doubt beat Keir down into wooden spoon place. As far as the rest of us are concerned, it’s a round and balanced 20-30-20 point gap : 20 separate the the members of the two groups, and there’s 30 points between the two groups themselves.

Francis Lee v. Paul Evans (20 point gap)

Paul Evans has made 20 points more than Franco in previous stages (+30 difference in Paul’s magnificent stage 7 win), but it had a lot to do with Boonen. If Basso and McEwen are well placed, that could be good for Paul, gaining him 16 points on Franco. He’d need someone like McGee to come in to make the difference, and he’ll have to hope that Leipheimer doesn’t come in a top ten place as Franco has him better placed.

Simon White vs. Joost Dantuma (also a 20 point gap)

I’m 20 ahead of Joost, and his top 6 riders are all in my team also albeit in a different permutation. In order to make up 20 points he’d have to do something pretty impossible. There has never been more than 14 points difference either way in stage results between us, with stage 13 being the best gap for Joost (+12) where O’Grady, McEwen and Hushovd were the only top ten finishers for either of us, and even then there were bonus points in Joost’s favour there.

Out in Saint Etienne yesterday, the time trial was excellent for Vinokourov, coming third overall (-1’16″). Ullrich took a very good second place (-0’23″). Lance “the machine” Armstrong took the time trial and likely his only stage win in the tour. Rasmussen had the worst day, dropping from 3rd to 7th in the GC after two falls and three bike changes. Since the riders leave 3 minutes apart, this meant he finished the day last behind Lance Armstrong even though he had a 6 minute head start.

There will be points on offer today as the top three sprinters all have a mathematical chance to finish with the green jersey. Hushovd is pretty much assured of the jersey if he stays in the top 3 at each sprint and/or just finishes ahead of O’Grady and McEwen, but they’ll be going for it in case of faltering from the other riders. It’s as academic for those sprinters as it is for the teams on the Fella’s tour…

P.S. Mild error in previous Excels

Please note the original stage 3 individual scores were incorrect. The Excel has always graphed the correct difference between riders, because the running total has always been correct (and this is checked with the TdF site every day), but the actual individual totals for stage 3 were wrong. I didn’t notice this until now, as I made comparisons for how the race might change around today. This means that I actually won that first stage, and the tie suggested between Joost Dantuma and Francis Lee on that stage was purely a formula pasting mistake.

-Simon

381 (+0,-45) Simon White (France)
374 (+1,-52) Joost Dantuma (UK)
327 (+0,-99) Francis Lee (France)
322 (+3,-104) Paul Evans (France)
92 (+5,-334) Keir Mitchell (UK)

The only curious fact of the day is that Keir Mitchell’s bottom table buddy Adios Mofo won the stage! So Keir could be back in the running to come bottom… he’s just 12 points ahead of Adios and could be in trouble in the individual time trial tomorrow!
The stage was another carbon copy style of the “transitionals” : a big break got away, and Giuseppe Guerini rode best to take the stage for T-Mobile. Riders in the top ten for the Fella’s tour were Chavanel (Paul), Grabsch (Keir) and Joost’s luckydip Pelizotti. Oscar Pereiro has gained a bit of time over the last few days, pulling up to tenth in the GC and ahead of Christophe Moreau.

At least we’re guaranteed a bit of excitement tomorrow !

-Simon

381 (+3,-45) Simon White (France)
373 (+1,-53) Joost Dantuma (UK)
327 (+0,-99) Francis Lee (France)
319 (+1,-107) Paul Evans (France)
87(+13,-339) Keir Mitchell (UK)

The battle at the bottom of the table looks stabilised : Keir again gained on Adios Mofo and the gap is a safe 32 points. He’s only ten from the third from bottom, so the wooden spoon will not be going to Napton or thereabouts.

Out on the road today, Marcos Serrano won the stage and saved some face for the Liberty Seguros-Würth team. Riders like Beloki and Heras have done nothing for the team – and nothing for the Fellas either. A similar story from yesterday, the inital break got well over 10 minutes ahead and never looked back. In the maillot jaune group, things played out much the same as the last couple of days. Some minor evolutions worthy of note though. Vinokourov lost some time on the GC, and Ullrich gained a bit on Rasmussen to make a 3rd place look more likely. So it’s odds-on for Armstrong, Basso and Ullrich in 1-2-3 but I doubt anything will happen tomorrow. Would be fantastic if it did, but I think the riders will all be saving legs for the time trial what with three minutes separating second, third and fourth places.

Still, there is life left in the Fella’s tour. Maybe tomorrow a smaller break will get ahead leaving a few low places up for grabs so we can all be a little motivated in the lead-in to the time trial, where we’re all likely to pick up a lot of points. Sadly I expect much of the same tomorrow, so I’m waiting for Saturday.

-Simon

378 (+8,-48) Simon White (France)
372 (+0,-54) Joost Dantuma (UK)
327 (+0,-99) Francis Lee (France)
318 (+0,-108) Paul Evans (France)
74 (+0,-352) Keir Mitchell (UK)

Some of the riders in the top ten weren’t in any teams in the TDF game, and others figure in very few teams. Clearly the top riders are taking it easy and letting breaks, when formed of riders well out of GC contention, get away. Scoring 8 points today was sufficient for me to come equal 41st overall for the stage. But I’ll take the points where I can – Davis is a previous top ten finisher and has scored twice for me previously. It’s not a bolt from the blue.

Bad news preceded the result for everyone as all teams bar Keir Mitchell’s selection lose a key rider. Kloden fractured his wrist in his fall yesterday. This hurts Joost the most, Kloden is his number one rider. Three teams have now lost their lead man.

Today’s ride started with that bad news that Kloden, after just a few km, was unable to continue. After riding most of the stage yesterday with what was diagnosed as a broken wrist that evening, he couldn’t hack it today. Goes to show that the day after is always worse. From there on, a breakaway of seventeen riders gradually got over 25 minutes ahead, a bad omen for competitivity in the Fella’s tour. Paolo Savoldelli became the second member of the Discovery team to win a stage while the peloton was still over 20 minutes up the road. Vinokourov and Ullrich again tried to attack, at least to distance Rasmussen, but were soon held on to by Armstrong, Basso, Rasmussen and others. Vinokourov was the day’s winner in the GC, jumping from 10th to 7th after gaining 20 seconds by holding on in the main peloton group, which had started to crank up the pace near the end to pull a little ahead of the following pack which included Landis and Evans.

It’s looking a bit shit if the top riders stay in the peloton and let breakaways get so far ahead and in such big numbers. The Fella’s tour is being stamped out to a slightly smoking (but definitely schmokin’… perhaps too much) damp squib. It’s possible that there will be more battling for places in the GC, especially if a well placed rider or two gets going with a breakaway. Maybe Vinokourov will be mad enough to go for it with Ullrich. Given Discovery tactics it hasn’t even threated to happen yet, but here’s hoping…

-Simon

372(+0) Joost Dantuma (UK)
370(+0) Simon White (France)
327(+0) Francis Lee (France)
318(+0) Paul Evans (France)
74 (+14) Keir Mitchell (UK)

In the reverse championship for the wooden spoon, Adios Mofo managed 7 points, so Keir hasn’t pulled too far off the “inverse lead”. That bird on his chopper caused a number of the crowd to faint and may therefore have been an excellent diversion tactic to the Mofo team. Today Keir revels in 11th equal place in the top 100 in the TDF game, tomorrow he could be back to rock bottom. That’s cycling for you gentlemen.

As far as the actual tour was concerned, people tried again to attack – Vinokourov like the Energizer Bunny tried a couple of times to get Ullrich going, but Basso and Armstrong were never far behind. The early break – including Flecha and Evans who have tried breaks many times on the tour without success – stayed ahead in sufficient numbers to keep all popular cyclists out of the top ten. Nobody was in general classification contention in the break anyway. Flecha, inspired by Keir’s chopper, did the business and came in for him in 8th. The final winner was Pereiro who was outsprinted by Hincapie in the last stage and was clearly looking to make amends.

Sadly, it looks a lot like smooth sailing for Lance Armstrong unless someone actually manages to properly attack him, or perhaps if he starts to tire because of consistent attacks over the last few days which may drain his energy enough for a final push from Basso or Rasmussen. Or perhaps not, the time trial is usually all for Lance.

Nearly 240km on a fairly flat course with a couple of little climbs awaits the riders tomorrow. Let’s see if we can’t all get a “backy” from Keir’s blonde bint and score some points to get the Fella’s tour going again, while Keir gets back to scoring a little something for his handlebar pipe.

-Simon

http://staff.science.uva.nl/~erikt/tdf/20050718.html

I wish I had the time to do a bit of calculation along the same lines, if anyone else feels up to it (for now or at the end of the game) then go for it.

-Simon

372(+28,-54) Joost Dantuma (UK)
370(+31,-56) Simon White (France)
327(+33,-99) Francis Lee (France)
318(+35,-108) Paul Evans (France)
60 (+8,-366) Keir Mitchell (UK)

Paul “the slightly less grumpy Fella” can take heart in having the optimal placement of the three riders most likely to fight hard over the next stages : Armstrong, Ullrich and Basso. However that advantage only comes into play if all three make the top ten. Still just ahead, Joost Dantuma had a tough day. Finishing at the back of the four main riders in the Fella’s tour today, he must be glad that there’s a rest day tomorrow to recoup and get his tactical decisions made clear to all his riders for the final mountain stage on Tuesday. No doubt he’ll take a copy of the Excel chart to his debriefing session and moan about how you can’t even see the separation between the two team lines, them fellas are so close behind. I’ll have time to get my riders to practice the schoolboy trick of pushing the front tyre right up next to Joost’s back tyre, then turning the handlebars to allow the two to rub slightly together and making a silly burning noise. Most offputting it will be for the flying Dutchc@#t.

Out in the blistering heat – in places the bitumen was pretty much melted – the real tour riders had their toughest day yet. The peloton let a fourteen man breakaway get almost twenty minutes ahead. They knew that they didn’t need to up the pace. First, nobody in the break was going to endanger the lead. Second, it was inevitable as the front riders climbed “col” after “col”, that they would lose their pace. With 4 peaks and a mountain finish to get through today, they just weren’t going to keep their average up high enough to stay that far ahead of the best riders behind them. Ten of the fourteen ended up going backwards (relatively speaking) but, helped by how much time they had got ahead, five riders from the inital breakaway valiantly managed to stay ahead. Hincapie was ecstatic as he took his first ever tour stage win, easily beating Pereiro in the final few hundred metres. Boogerd was up there as well, causing Keir Mitchell to come out of retirement on his wedding day to pick up 8 points. That’s a mighty fine gesture for your wedding Keir, just don’t get too excited about the wooden spoon being awarded to “Adios Mofo” instead, he managed to pick up 10 points so he’s still closing the gap.

In the overall classification, Lance Armstrong is still looking strong. Basso tried to attack him by changing the pace several times, but he couldn’t shake the yellow jersey off. Ullrich, on the other hand, had more trouble. Vinokourov was up there with him, leading off an attack and change of pace for him on the last climb – but Ullrich couldn’t do much with it. He looked like he was in pain as he came in to finish having lost time and a place in the general classification: Basso is now second by 16 seconds. I’m hoping Vinokourov can keep being aggressive and working for the Ullrich on the flat. As long as the Kazakh stays with him he’s a real weapon in my fight against Joost every time he makes a top ten finish.

Rest day tomorrow, so I’ll be back on Tuesday for more random rambling,

-Simon

344(+41,-50) Joost Dantuma (UK)
339(+45,-55) Simon White (France)
294(+54,-100) Francis Lee (France)
283(+51,-111) Paul Evans (France)
52 (+0,-342) Keir Mitchell (UK)

A fourth stage win to Franco, and it’s worth noting the few extra points for me over Joost Dantuma to help keep me within comfortable range of the flying Dutchc@#t. Keir could still be the man to watch as he is really in the running for the overall wooden spoon. There is only one team below him now – “Adios Mofo” – who actually have some riders likely to get points, and who banked 14 of them today. His lineup includes the likes of Mancebo, Rasmussen and Vinokourov. He’s now on 38, just 14 behind Keir and surely ready to pass him before the rest of the riders get anywhere close to Paris.

In the real tour, there were two groups riding ahead of the peloton (if you can call it that) most of the day : the remains of an initial breakaway were whittled down to one Georg Totschnig (I saw only brief highlights but he was taking the downhills like a right nutter). He managed to hold on and finish about a minute ahead of the second group which had pulled away after a lot of attacking riding : Armstrong, Basso and Ullrich. The American six times tour winning machine showed his strength and never looked like losing the race for second place. Rather annoyingly, and especially for me, Vinokourov came in 11th. However he was 46″ behind 10th place, so there was no hope for him to make a late boost to gain a place and get me 15 extra points.

Enjoy your weekend everyone, and thanks for the nostalgia in the old Excel file you dug out Joost. Clearly you had a lot more time than me to perfect that little scorekeeping fella there Fella.

-Simon